Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
