A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
